Import Surge Expected As Tariff Pause Spurs Retailer Activity

U.S. imports through major container ports are projected to spike this summer, driven by a temporary 90-day reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released June 9 by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“This is the busiest time of year for retailers as they prepare for the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “With tariffs recently lowered, retailers are rushing to bring in merchandise before the current pauses on U.S. and reciprocal tariffs end in July and August.”

Gold noted that many retailers had delayed or canceled shipments after the April announcement of a 145% tariff on Chinese goods by the Trump administration. Imports resumed after the tariffs were cut to 30% and a 90-day suspension was announced, effective until August 12. Reciprocal tariffs on other countries have also been paused through July 9, pending negotiations.

“Our data shows a significant drop in imports in May as shippers reacted to the tariff hikes,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “But we expect a sharp rebound from June through August as companies take advantage of the temporary relief. This year, the import peak for winter holidays will arrive earlier than usual, overlapping with the back-to-school rush.”

April import volumes reached 2.21 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs)—up 2.9% from March and 9.6% year over year. This preceded the impact of the April tariff hikes.

Preliminary estimates for May show a decline to 1.91 million TEUs, down 13.4% from April and 8.1% from May 2024—marking the first year-over-year drop since September 2023 and the lowest monthly total since December.

With tariffs temporarily reduced, imports are expected to recover somewhat in the coming months. June is projected at 2.01 million TEUs (down 6.2% YoY), July at 2.13 million (down 8.1%), and August at 1.98 million (down 14.7%).

However, volumes are expected to fall sharply in the latter part of 2025. September imports are forecast at 1.78 million TEUs (down 21.8% YoY), and October at 1.8 million (down 19.8%). These steep declines are partly due to elevated import levels in late 2024 amid fears of East and Gulf Coast port strikes.

Overall, the first half of 2025 is projected to reach 12.54 million TEUs—a 3.7% increase over last year, and an improvement over last month’s pre-pause forecast of 12.13 million TEUs. However, it still falls short of the 12.78 million TEUs forecast before the April tariff hike announcement.

Source: WorkBoat