Import Cargo Expected To Set New Record Ahead Of Potential August Tariffs

Import activity at the nation’s largest container ports is expected to reach a record high this month as retailers accelerate shipments ahead of possible tariff increases, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“An early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and navigate ongoing trade uncertainties,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Supply chain disruptions related to the conflict in Iran are also contributing to continued uncertainty.”

With back-to-school shopping already underway and the holiday season approaching, retailers are working to bring products into the U.S. before potential tariffs increase costs. While consumers continue to spend despite economic challenges, affordability remains a major factor influencing purchasing decisions.

Temporary 10% global tariffs under Section 122, which began in February, are scheduled to expire on July 24. Additional tariffs related to forced labor issues are expected to be introduced by the Trump administration as early as August.

“Import volumes have increased significantly, and strong growth is expected to continue into July,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. “Much of this growth is the result of businesses moving shipments forward in anticipation of higher tariffs.”

According to the report, U.S. ports tracked by Global Port Tracker processed 2.24 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in May, the latest month with finalized data. This represented a 14.9% increase compared with the same period last year and a 10.1% increase from April.

Although June figures have not yet been finalized, the report projects imports of 2.33 million TEU for the month, representing an 18.7% year-over-year increase. This would bring total imports for the first half of 2026 to approximately 12.77 million TEU, up 2% from the same period in 2025.

July is expected to set a new monthly record, with imports forecast at 2.47 million TEU—3.3% higher than last year and above the previous record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022 during the post-pandemic economic recovery.

Following the July surge, import volumes are expected to decline:

• August: 2.22 million TEU, down 4.5% year over year
• September: 1.99 million TEU, down 5.7%
• October: 1.99 million TEU, down 3.8%
• November: 1.92 million TEU, down 5.2%

The May-through-July period is projected to represent the busiest shipping window of the year. The traditional peak shipping season, once centered around October, has shifted earlier in recent years due to factors including port labor concerns and anticipated tariff changes.Total U.S. imports reached 25.4 million TEU in 2025, slightly below the 25.5 million TEU recorded in 2024.

Produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, Global Port Tracker provides historical data and forecasts for major U.S. ports, including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston.

Source: Dredge Wire